March Madness Final Four Best Bets: UConn vs Alabama, NC State vs Purdue

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the Ultimate 4 discipline between UConn versus Alabama and NC State towards Purdue.

Alabama vs UConn (-11.5): O/U 161.5

The UConn Huskies have crushed its opponents by 25, 30, 23, and 39 factors over 4 NCAA Match video games this season. Relationship again to final yr, the Huskies have received 10 straight NCAA Match video games by 13 or extra factors — overlaying all 10 video games.

Of these 10 video games, 9 straight opponents have scored 32 or fewer factors within the first half towards UConn. The Huskies protection held its 4 opponents on this match to 19, 18, 31, and 23 factors to Stetson, Northwestern, San Diego State, and Illinois.

Alabama leads the nation in possessions per sport, ninth in general tempo, third in offensive tempo, and ranks third in adjusted offensive effectivity and 4-0 ATS and on the ML on this tourney. The Tide is all about offense with the 104th-ranked defensive effectivity, the 291st turnover proportion, and 272nd defensive rebounding ranks.

UConn ought to have the ability to gradual this sport down and management the tempo as they did versus Illinois and San Diego State. Bama scored 35, 46, 38, and 51 first-half factors on this NCAA Match, however UConn ought to preserve them to their lowest complete, if you happen to ask me.

Give me the Huskies -11.5 at -110 odds and the Alabama First Half Workforce Whole Beneath 35.5 at -120 odds on DraftKings. I would go right down to -12.5 for UConn and Beneath 34.5 on Bama.

Choose: UConn -11.5 (1u), Alabama 1H Workforce Whole Beneath 35.5 (1u)

NC State vs Purdue (-9.5): O/U 146.0

Nobody anticipated NC State to make the Ultimate 4, however right here we’re towards a Purdue workforce that has made substantial strides for the reason that starting of final season.

Opponents scored 34, 36, 33, and 27 first-half factors within the 4 match video games this season towards the Purdue Boilermakers, and NC State’s first-half workforce complete is about at 31.5, which is what I goal on this assembly.

NC State is on a 9-0 streak for the reason that ACC Match started and scored at the least 32 first-half factors in seven of 9 video games. The Wolfpack’s duo of DJ’s, Burns and Horne, has been nothing wanting spectacular. Whereas Zach Edey vs Burns would be the matchup to look at, as each bigs have dominated the match, there may be one other angle of assault.

NC State’s three-point protection will likely be an element on this outing to cowl/win. The Wolfpack held Marquette and Duke to 9-of-51 from three (17.6%) within the final two video games, whereas Purdue mixed for 12-of-35 (34.2%) towards Tennessee (3/15) and Gonzaga (9/20).

Purdue allowed Tennessee to hit 11-of-26 triples (42.3%) and Gonzaga to go 23-of-40 from two (57.5%). The Boilermakers’ protection mixed for 2 blocks and eight steals during the last two video games, whereas the Wolfpack has a complete of 19 blocks/steals in that span.

I’ll take NC State to get off to a fast begin, and keep aggressive towards Purdue, and go Over the first-half workforce complete of 31.5 at -122 odds. I might go for NC State 1H +5.5 if this strikes previous 32.5.

Choose: NC State 1H Workforce Whole Over 31.5 (1u)

Season Report: 93-97 (48.9%) -8.81u

CBB Futures In My Pocket:

2u: UConn to win the Nationwide Championship (-105)

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