Fantasy Football Week 11: What to watch for

BINGE

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The 2 prime groups within the league will meet as each come off their bye week. A pleasant matchup awaits on this Tremendous Bowl rematch the place the bones of each 2022 groups stay however a number of crucial areas of transition have emerged.

From a fantasy soccer matchup perspective, these winds of change have blown via reverse sides of the ball for Kansas Metropolis and Philadelphia.

Largest Storyline: Is the Eagles protection an actual subject? The cross rush remains to be a energy of the roster. They rank third in quarterback hits this season, behind two groups who haven’t gone on bye but. Regardless of that outcome, the Eagles protection is nineteenth in EPA per dropback allowed. That exhibits they’ve actual points overlaying on the again finish, as Darius Slay and James Bradberry aren’t the identical dynamic duo at nook this season. The center-of-the-field protection has been a difficulty all season. Not best with Travis Kelce on the ledger.

Stat you could know

I like this chart as a result of it exhibits how a lot Patrick Mahomes has needed to create exterior the construction of the offense this season. He doesn’t belief what’s in entrance of him and it’s onerous guilty him. With the best way Philly rushes the passer, I can see Mahomes breaking include on some massive scrambles. His speeding prop is a mere 25.5 yards and I just like the over.

  • Participant in a smash spot: Rashee Rice. The Chiefs rookie has run 58% of his routes from the slot this season, per Fantasy Factors Information. I’d wish to see him increase his function additional however this is a wonderful matchup to use for Week 11 since, as talked about, the Eagles’ cross protection has been exploitable within the slot. Rice ranks sixth amongst all pass-catchers with 40-plus targets in yards after contact per reception. We may see his first true breakout sport on Monday night time, particularly if his function will increase in any means.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at HOUSTON TEXANS

I didn’t assume this sport can be within the “binge” group a number of weeks in the past however with the return of Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud’s latest heater, I’m fairly excited to look at this sport. Regardless of the mainstream tanking narrative, I imagine the Cardinals’ major purpose down the stretch is to stack good Murray performances, construct momentum for 2024 and reaffirm their new tradition below Jonathan Gannon. That’s excellent news for us as a result of there are some strong offensive gamers on this roster.

In the meantime, the Texans are in the midst of a playoff push with Stroud working his means into the MVP dialogue. This matchup has a lot extra attraction than we might have thought a number of months again. This may be one of many highest-scoring video games of the week.

Largest Storyline: Kyler Murray seemed nice in his 2023 debut. He must shake off extra rust as a passer, as to be anticipated, however he uncorked some correct heaters that solely inner-circle quarterbacks can hit:

Maybe much more critically, he prevented three sacks, per Fantasy Factors Information, and ripped off two enormous scrambles. He seemed like the identical athlete we bear in mind. It is a man who can elevate an offense and there are guys like Marquise Brown, James Conner, sleeper rookie Michael Wilson and a specific breakout tight finish(extra on him beneath) value boosting in Arizona.

Stat you could know: Trey McBride is second behind solely Travis Kelce in yards per route run (2.39) and targets per route run (27.4%), per Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life. McBride has come alive since veteran tight finish Zach Ertz went on IR. With Murray again in motion and his function advancing, saying McBride is a top-10 tight finish rest-of-season in fantasy is simply too apparent. He can climb a lot larger.

  • Participant in a smash spot: Houston Texans broad receivers. The Arizona Cardinals permit the second-highest completion fee and third-most yards to receivers lined up exterior. The cornerback room stays a weak spot. It’s an ideal matchup to begin Nico Collins in his return from an damage and to chase Tank Dell’s ceiling. The rookie is healthier suited to play the flanker spot and that may permit him to be extra environment friendly than he was in Week 10 (six catches on 14 targets) when he needed to take some X-receiver reps in Collins’ absence.

NEW YORK JETS at BUFFALO BILLS

I get it. I don’t notably relish watching the Jets’ offense proper now. Nonetheless, this sport is crucial for AFC playoff seeding. If New York loses yet another sport, their postseason odds drop dramatically, making Aaron Rodgers’ fairytale return in December virtually irrelevant, if it’s even attainable.

The Payments equally don’t have a lot margin for error. We all know they’re below intense strain to go on a run simply to be in playoff place. But, this protection has had Josh Allen’s quantity and pushed him into brain-scramble mode of late. This sport has a ton of NFL implications and due to this fact, may deliver us a number of signature performances.

Largest Storyline: The brand new Payments offensive coordinator. Regardless of the offense’s top-five rating in EPA per play, success fee and DVOA, Ken Dorsey was proven the door. Litigate the justification all you need, there was some motive inside the constructing that precipitated a change. Joe Brady takes over after equally being a scapegoat below Matt Rhule’s 2021 Panthers. Brady isn’t prone to scrap the offense and begin over however he may strip out a number of parts. I keep this workforce discovered a superb base offense of their 11-personnel bundle with Dalton Kincaid because the lone tight finish and Khalil Shakir because the slot. The Payments can nonetheless end the season sturdy on offense, however that was probably true whatever the play-caller change.

Stat you could know: The New York Jets play Cowl 1 on 26.4% of their defensive performs, fifth-most within the NFL, per Fantasy Factors Information. Stefon Diggs is the one participant on the workforce to common over two yards per route run in opposition to Cowl 1. I do know Diggs’ uncooked goal totals are excessive, however the Payments’ offense does have a nasty behavior of getting away from him for stretches in video games. I guess Brady dials up a ton of seems to get Diggs one-on-one in that simplification effort.

  • Participant in a smash spot: Breece Corridor. The Payments permit the third-most yards per carry this season as that run protection has fallen aside. The discharge of Michael Carter may also open up some passing down work for Corridor.

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Largest Storyline: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defensive volatility. The Bucs had allowed over 400 complete yards in three straight video games earlier than demolishing the Titans in Week 10. Does that say extra concerning the Bucs’ protection or the Titans’ offense? I’ll guess the latter. Todd Bowles can nonetheless ship a rookie quarterback spinning however Kyle Shanahan’s assault is a distinct story.

Stat you could know: Mike Evans is on tempo for 1,400 yards and is 263 away from one other 1,000-yard season.

He has been leaps and bounds the most effective participant on this offense. Evans is a future Corridor of Famer and this season with Baker Mayfield is nearly extra spectacular than his run with Tom Brady, to me. The 49ers have had some points with exterior receivers (122.4 yards per sport) so Evans can do it once more in Week 11.

  • Participant in a smash spot: Deebo Samuel. The person vs. zone protection splits form of labored with the 49ers receivers final week however Samuel solely bought there in fantasy due to a speeding landing. It’s nonetheless value noting that the Bucs play zone protection on the sixth-highest fee total, per Fantasy Factors Information. That’s the kind of protection Samuel is usually greatest at when dealing with.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

Largest Storyline: The post-Deshaun Watson world for Cleveland. We’ve seen a ton of this offense with out Watson on the helm this season. The outcomes have been verifiably not nice. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a catastrophe in his lone begin of 2023 however will get the nod. It will increase the margin for error for each participant within the Browns offense, which is prone to lean on the run sport and attempt to play small ball to let their protection win the day.

Stat you could know: Twenty-one % of the Steelers’ runs have gone for 10+ yards the final two weeks, the best fee within the league. Earlier than that, they ranked 18th. Splitting the work between Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris has introduced out the most effective in each backs. They’re each low-floor choices with no landing however nonetheless on the RB2 radar.

  • Participant in a smash spot: This isn’t the sport atmosphere the place anybody initiatives to “smash,” however the Steelers wideouts may make some performs regardless of the unhealthy matchup. The Browns play man protection on the third-highest fee, per Fantasy Factors knowledge. Diontae Johnson averages a whopping 4.79 yards per route run in opposition to man protection this season. George Pickens is at 2.75. Each sink beneath 2.0 in opposition to zone protection. If Kenny Pickett can get the throws off, his receivers can win.

CHICAGO BEARS at DETROIT LIONS

Largest Storyline: The Lions offense is buzzing. The run sport seemed ferocious with each David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the sphere. The duo rang up three touchdowns and supplied explosive performs. The passing sport continues to roll when the situations are proper. It is a playoff offense.

Stat you could know: The Bears have the fourth-best defensive success fee allowed since Week 7, No. 1 in speeding EPA and success fee allowed. Maybe not so quick on the Lions offense hype this week! Chicago has quietly turned issues round as a cease unit, although their schedule of late hasn’t precisely been overly daunting. It is a actual check for the Bears and their hovering run-stop unit with a completely built-in Montez Sweat. In the event that they’re to cowl the -7.5 unfold, this can should be a development, not a fluke.

  • Participant in a smash spot: DJ Moore. The targets have been there with Moore below Tyson Bagent however the downfield seems have evaporated. He hasn’t cleared 60 yards in 4 straight video games. He’ll get that and extra on Sunday. Keenan Allen simply ripped via this Lions’ secondary to the tune of 11 catches on 14 targets for 175 yards and two scores.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

Largest Storyline: The Chargers have to care for enterprise. Los Angeles has little to no margin for error going ahead, so this workforce that so usually will get itself into bizarre video games can’t afford a slip as three-point highway favorites in Inexperienced Bay. There’s already loads of warmth on this teaching employees, which can get ramped up in the event that they lose in Week 11.

Stat you could know: Jordan Love has thrown 5 of his 10 interceptions when concentrating on Christian Watson, who has caught 2 of 12 contested targets on the 12 months, per PFF. At this level, I’m able to see another person featured because the first-read participant within the Packers passing sport.

Rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have made errors however have proven flashes. In the meantime, Watson has been unable to separate or constantly make contested catches. Merely put, he hasn’t executed in his promotion to clear No. 1 receiver after being a splash big-play menace as a rookie.

  • Participant in a smash spot: Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has gone below 4.0 yards per carry in all of his video games since coming back from damage. He’s additionally run into some fairly brutal run protection matchups. It is a good get-right sport in opposition to a Packers workforce that was shredded by the Steelers final week and is again of their annual place of being a bottom-10 workforce in speeding EPA allowed.

TENNESSEE TITANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Largest Storyline: We’ll contact on Jacksonville’s offense in a second however I’m virtually extra fascinated by how Will Levis performs. Levis had proven actual flashes in his first two video games however struggled below constant strain final week in opposition to the Bucs. He was hit a whopping 13 instances. Few quarterbacks can cope with that, particularly rookies. Jacksonville’s protection has some spectacular metrics and dedicates a ton of sources to stopping the run, so there ought to be home windows downfield. Mike Caldwell shares a ton of defensive DNA with Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles, which is troubling contemplating what we noticed final week. The Titans have to see extra constructive alerts from Levis in the event that they’re going to stroll into the offseason with him as their clear QB1.

Stat you could know: Calvin Ridley is one in all simply two receivers who’ve confronted press protection on greater than 40% of their routes, per Subsequent Gen Stats. That has been an enormous downside for Jacksonville.

Ridley isn’t getting off the road as cleanly as he as soon as was. He nonetheless seems a bit rusty and slower coming off a protracted layoff. Nonetheless, that is on teaching. At this level, it’s malpractice to line the man up at X-receiver virtually each snap and exacerbate the problem. Ridley has been a superb receiver total however Press Taylor and co. haven’t been nice with the deployment of this receiver room, nor does the roster have one other choice to toss out at X to activate Ridley elsewhere. The Titans afford a strong rebound spot as a result of their secondary has holes however to date, this lack of motion and total timing disruption has been the most important hangup in Jacksonville’s cross offense.

  • Participant in a smash spot: DeAndre Hopkins. I’ve been chasing this one for weeks, so preserve that in thoughts. Nonetheless, the Jaguars are exploitable within the secondary, permitting a 137.2 passer score on targets lined up exterior. If Levis can stand as much as the push, he can discover Hopkins downfield.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Largest Storyline: Can the Seahawks offense do it once more? Geno Smith is coming off his highest passing-yard efficiency as a Seattle Seahawk. Nonetheless, it was a cakewalk matchup in opposition to the Commanders and there have been nonetheless matches and begins with this offense. We have to see Smith and these receivers string collectively an entire sport earlier than placing them into the higher tier of passing video games.

Given the schematic matchup, it is a spot the place Smith will lean on Tyler Lockett:

This season, they’ve compelled issues an excessive amount of to DK Metcalf in contested conditions. The layups can be found on this offense. Simply need to take the throws.

Stat you could know: Puka Nacua Weeks 1-5: 114.4 yards per sport. Since Week 6: 63.8 yards per sport. Matthew Stafford returned to follow coming off the bye and ought to be wholesome. Hopefully, he’ll final. We aren’t prone to see Nacua put up online game numbers on the common like he did to begin the season however that is nonetheless a superb atmosphere and he’s a confirmed participant.

  • Participant in a smash spot: Kenneth Walker. This seems like a constructive gamescript or at the least impartial which is the right outlook to chase Walker’s ceiling. A lot is fabricated from rookie Zach Charbonnet taking part in extra snaps however it hasn’t modified Walker’s workload a lot, if in any respect. He’s held a 70% grip on the push makes an attempt for this workforce. The Rams are in the midst of the pack (sixteenth) in speeding success fee allowed.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at DENVER BRONCOS

Largest Storyline: Joshua Dobbs’ continued run. There’s no query Dobbs has been a revelation and a perfect resolution for the Vikings within the wake of Kirk Cousins’ damage. Nonetheless, I feel taking part in on a nationwide stage might reveal that there have been some actual matches and begins with this offense quarter to quarter within the final two video games. Dobbs does his greatest work off script and typically struggles to string collectively constant moments. That’s not sufficient for me to be too involved concerning the Vikings offense going ahead — simply is what it’s — however it’s one thing to notice as they play in entrance of extra eyeballs than simply the NFL RedZone channel.

Stat you could know: Russell Wilson had the best anticipated completion share amongst Week 10 quarterbacks per Subsequent Gen Stats, which is hilarious contemplating his landing throw to Courtland Sutton had the bottom completion chance in NGS historical past:

Wilson has been certifiably “effective” to date this season. Sean Payton has simply requested him to execute the offense and handle the sport. Wilson has performed that and has salvaged himself from the 2022 nightmare. This shall be a stiff check in opposition to a Vikings protection that throws a ton at you. Brian Flores and co. lead the league in cover-zero and blitzing.

  • Participant in a smash spot: T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings tight finish has 27 targets within the final two video games and has been Dobbs’ go-to man. The Broncos protection has rebounded from the 70-point nightmare and lockdown exterior nook Pat Surtain has been taking part in nice ball. He ought to be locked up with Jordan Addison (if Justin Jefferson waits till Week 12 to return), which would depart Hockenson to gobble up receptions.

Be aware: If Alexander Mattison misses this sport, Ty Chandler will get my smash-spot designation. Denver has nonetheless struggled to cease the run the final 4 video games and Chandler brings extra juice than anybody else has to the backfield. Maintain him in your roster and see what occurs, no matter Mattison’s standing. Play him if the Vikings starter sits.

SKIP

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

One motive to possibly watch: The Dolphins offense is clear however I stay curious concerning the Antonio Pierce period with the Raiders. They’ve performed a pair of cupcakes within the New York offenses the final two weeks. Nonetheless, they’ve a transparent identification as a run-first workforce that takes pictures to Davante Adams. That’s adequate for now.

However I don’t know how they’ll cease Miami within the secondary.

Stat you could know:

The Dolphins offense has slowed down of late. There isn’t any hiding from that actuality. Most of it may be attributed to the run sport hitting a stall. Whether or not it’s simply stumbling below a heavier workload or a fluke, Raheem Mostert hasn’t been fairly as explosive of late. It is a excellent time to welcome again rookie De’Von Achane. Don’t be shocked if the Dolphins roll up on the Raiders popping out of their bye.

NEW YORK GIANTS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

One motive to possibly watch: Sam Howell’s progress is value monitoring. Howell leads the NFL in passing yards and dropbacks. I want they’d condense the passing tree to simply the primary guys however Eric Bieniemy has this gorgeous unfold out. That makes Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson fairly unstable. Nonetheless, Howell can shred a protection that performs extra man protection than anybody else and struggles to strain the passer constantly.

Stat you could know: Saquon Barkley performed simply 61% of the snaps in Week 10 after logging 78%, 84%, 89% and 75% the 4 video games prior. That is simply one of many dangers with Barkley now taking part in on an offense in full collapse mode.

DALLAS COWBOYS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

One motive to possibly watch: The Cowboys offense is on hearth proper now and CeeDee Lamb is inserting his identify into the Offensive Participant of the Yr race. That’s allowed different guys like Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson and others to pop up for giant video games. All the unit is healthier off when Lamb is featured. That’s value watching.

No horror present on the Panthers unit has my fascination at this level. It’s simply unhappy to look at them wither.

Stat you could know:

Dak Prescott is on a powerful heater proper now. Once more, a lot of this comes again to Lamb’s deployment. Having him on the market because the X-receiver extra usually permits him to be the No. 1 learn within the development and Prescott is a man who desires to learn performs outright. So, Lamb, one in all my favourite route runners in opposition to man protection, catches Prescott’s eyes quicker than when he’s the slot man. It took too lengthy to get there however the Cowboys teaching employees deserves credit score for arriving at this vacation spot.

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