The housing market is following a similar playbook from the 1980s when mortgage rates doubled. Here’s what it could mean for homebuyers today.

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  • The US housing market is displaying parallels to the Nineteen Eighties, when mortgage charges doubled.

  • Financial institution of America highlighted that each intervals had sturdy pent-up demand as a result of demographic traits.

  • Here is what this might imply for the housing market right now, based on Financial institution of America.


There are putting parallels between right now’s housing market and the housing market of the Nineteen Eighties, based on Financial institution of America.

Excessive inflation, surging mortgage charges, and pent-up demand for properties from a rising demographic growth are just some of the similarities between right now and 4 a long time in the past.

“We expect the Nineteen Eighties are a greater analogy for right now’s market than the 2008 housing crash,” Financial institution of America mentioned in a Thursday word.

Inflation soared all through the Seventies and into 1980, mortgage charges doubled from about 9% to 18% by 1981, and child boomers had been getting into their prime home-buying age.

Quick ahead to 2023: inflation has surged, the typical 30-year fastened mortgage price has doubled from about 3% to above 7%, and millennials are driving pent-up demand for properties as they enter their prime home-buying age.

So, what does this imply for the housing market going ahead?

It implies that costs are unlikely to rise from right here, and will barely fall, however not as a lot as they did throughout the 2008 housing crash, Financial institution of America mentioned.

The query is how lengthy can right now’s customers abdomen excessive mortgage charges, as that pushes affordability for a lot of millennials to unobtainable ranges.

“Persistently excessive mortgage charges ought to make the choice of buying a house tougher within the close to time period. Certainly, favorable demographics weren’t sufficient to carry up the market within the Nineteen Eighties and can doubtless not be sufficient to stimulate the market this time round,” Financial institution of America mentioned.

There are different similarities between right now’s housing market and that of the Nineteen Eighties, the financial institution added. Residence costs surged by over 16% in 1979, then basically flatlined as year-over-year progress slowed to simply 0.5% in 1982. Moreover, current dwelling gross sales fell 54% from peak to trough.

After the COVID-19 pandemic, dwelling costs jumped almost 21%, earlier than flatlining to 0% year-over-year progress in June. In the meantime, current dwelling gross sales have plunged almost 40%.

For now, there is no signal of extra housing growth, and family debt shouldn’t be a lot of a priority, BofA mentioned however warned there must be extra turbulence forward as potential homebuyers wrestle to maintain up with hovering mortgage charges.

“Restricted inventories, excessive costs, and labor shortages might be headwinds for a while, however the excellent news is that single household permits have held up for the previous a number of months… Affordability is probably going to enhance because the Fed cuts charges. At that stage, we must always see a extra steady and wholesome housing market. Till then, cling tight, it could be a bumpy experience,” Financial institution of America concluded.

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